The cryptocurrency community is abuzz with speculation about Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing bull run, with CryptoQuant.com’s latest X post shedding light on this pivotal moment.
The post features a detailed Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart, highlighting a divergence between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH). According to CryptoQuant, LTHs exhibit strong bullish conviction, driving the overall trend, while STHs may introduce temporary corrective pressure. This analysis, credited to @abramchart, suggests that while the bull run persists, a potential peak could be on the horizon.
The NUPL metric, derived from the difference between Bitcoin’s market value and realized value, is a key indicator of investor sentiment. Historical data, as noted in a 2021 Journal of Risk and Financial Management study, shows that such LTH-STH divergences often precede market tops. This aligns with the current chart, which spans from 2010 to 2025, showing Bitcoin’s price surging past $100,000 amid fluctuating profit/loss patterns.
Additionally, the Elliott Wave Theory, referenced in a TradingView analysis, supports this outlook, suggesting Bitcoin is in the 5th wave of an upward cycle, a phase often followed by a correction unless major support levels hold.
CryptoQuant’s data also draws from on-chain analytics, revealing that realized profits currently outweigh losses by a significant margin, a trend observed near past cycle tops (e.g., 2017 and 2021). However, the NUPL has not yet reached the extreme euphoria levels (above 0.75) seen in those cycles, indicating the top might still be weeks or months away. For investors, this presents a mixed signal: hold for potential gains or prepare for a pullback.
As Bitcoin’s market evolves, staying informed with tools like CryptoQuant’s charts and analyses will be crucial. The bull run’s end remains uncertain, but the data suggests caution as 2025 progresses.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
