- Warsh’s odds for Fed Chair rise sharply to 41%, up from 10%.
- Trump backs Warsh for Fed Chair, advocating for lower interest rates.
- Warsh competes closely with Hassett, who saw his odds drop to 51%.
Kevin Warsh’s chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair have seen a sharp increase, now standing at 41%, up from just 10% on December 9th. This surge follows former President Donald Trump’s comments about his preference for lower interest rates, with a target of 1% or lower.
Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, has long been an advocate for policies that align with Trump’s vision of easing monetary policy. This shared stance on interest rates has strengthened Warsh’s position as a leading candidate for the role.
In the past week, Warsh has gained ground in prediction markets, now in close competition with Kevin Hassett, Trump’s former economic advisor. Hassett’s odds have dropped from 77% to 51%, highlighting a shift in the race.
Trump’s Role in Shaping the Fed Chair Selection
As President Trump narrows down his options for the next Federal Reserve Chair, his influence on the selection process has become clear. Trump has expressed a strong preference for candidates who align with his views on interest rates, particularly those who support rate cuts.
During a conversation with the Wall Street Journal, Trump indicated that he is considering both Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett for the role.
Warsh’s odds have increased significantly on prediction markets like Kalshi and PolyMarket. His odds rose by 17% and 24% points, respectively, reflecting growing support.
While Hassett is still seen as the frontrunner, Warsh’s rise suggests that Trump’s final decision is still up for debate. Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Governor, remains a less likely choice, with his odds lingering at just 6%.
Trump’s emphasis on lowering borrowing costs continues to shape the odds surrounding the race for the Fed Chair position.
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