- Bitcoin has entered month 38 of its traditional 48-month cycle, a period historically associated with cooling momentum and the onset of bear market conditions.
- For the first time since the start of the current bull run, Bitcoin has closed three consecutive months below its 10-month moving average, a major bearish technical signal.
- While cycles typically bottom at month 48, extreme negative sentiment could lead to an “early” floor as soon as month 44 (mid-2026).
The crypto trader Bob Loukas provided a detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s ongoing 4-year cycle, highlighting potential risks for investors as the market shows signs of weakness. With Bitcoin currently trading around $82,000 after peaking at $98,000, Loukas points to historical patterns that suggest the asset may be entering a prolonged declining phase.
Loukas notes that we are now in month 38 of an average 48-month cycle, with Bitcoin closing its third consecutive month below the 10-month moving average (10MA). This marks a concerning development, as the cryptocurrency is on track to record four red months in a row—a pattern last observed in 2018 during a major bear market. The analyst’s chart illustrates this divergence, showing Bitcoin underperforming compared to other asset classes like stocks and commodities, which have continued their upward trajectories.
Technical Warning: Three Red Months Below the 10MA
Despite his inherent bullish bias on Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, Loukas emphasizes the cyclical nature of markets. “Everything is cyclical, and respecting there is a time and place,” he stated, cautioning against ignoring price action in favor of optimism. He criticizes some influencers on X for promoting overly positive narratives to sell services or maintain clout, urging investors to focus on reality rather than hype.
Loukas suggests that the rapid deterioration in sentiment could accelerate the cycle’s bottom, possibly arriving as early as month 44 instead of the typical 48. However, he remains defensive, stating that a close above the 10MA would be the key signal to shift back to a bullish stance. Such a reversal, he argues, could indicate a major structural change in the market.
Strategic Accumulation: Advice for Long-Term Investors
For everyday investors, Loukas advises a simple strategy: accumulate during drawdowns and ignore short-term volatility. This approach aligns with Bitcoin’s history of rewarding long-term holders through cycles of boom and bust.
The crypto market navigates economic uncertainties, including potential impacts from global policies, Loukas’s update serves as a reminder of the importance of cycle awareness. While Bitcoin’s adoption continues to grow—with institutional interest and technological advancements like layer-2 solutions—near-term price action may test investor resolve. Traders should monitor key levels, such as support around $74,000 and $65,000, as highlighted in related discussions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
