- Bitwise raised its rolling 10-year target from $1.3 million by 2035 to $1.6 million by 2036.
- The model projects 34.3% annualized growth, relying on larger markets and continued adoption.
- Bear and bull scenarios range from approximately $130,686 to $3.67 million.
Bitwise raised its Bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million by 2036, projecting compound annual growth of 34.3% over its modeled decade. The October 28 report updates last year’s $1.3 million target for 2035. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan attributed the increase primarily to larger potential markets, while keeping the firm’s market-share assumptions unchanged.Â
Bitcoin forecast rises as projected market opportunities grow
In his client memo, Hougan raised the projected store-of-value market from $91 trillion to approximately $110 trillion. The institutional investment opportunity increased from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.
These estimates describe future addressable markets, rather than capital already committed to buying BTC. The revised Bitcoin forecast therefore depends on both those markets expanding and the cryptocurrency capturing the assumed shares.
The base case assigns Bitcoin 25% of the projected store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets. Its bearish scenario reaches approximately $130,686, while the bullish case rises to $3.67 million.
That wide range highlights how strongly the valuation responds to adoption assumptions. The headline target represents one modeled outcome, rather than a promised price or a consensus across investment firms.
Bitwise separately estimates institutional allocations of 1%–5% could generate trillions of dollars in demand over the decade. Its comparison with annual mining issuance does not account for existing holders choosing to sell.
Bitcoin forecast assumes lower volatility as adoption deepens
The research summary projects average volatility of 27.8% and an average correlation of 0.43 with U.S. stocks. Both figures are forward-looking estimates, not guarantees of stable prices or reliable diversification.
The firm interprets the latest downturn as evidence of maturation because it was shallower than earlier cyclical collapses. Previous major drawdowns reached 86%, 84% and 77%, according to its announcement.
Bitwise expects broader institutional ownership to weaken the traditional four-year cycle, while acknowledging that substantial losses remain possible. Its 34.3% return projection compares with cited forecasts of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity.
The report identifies quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal among the main risks to its assumptions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
