- Bitcoin’s Integrated Market Index lingers below 45, confirming bearish territory and weak futures flows.
- Failed bullish attempts on October 13 and 20 highlight exhausted buyers and lost momentum since late September.
- BTC trading below $114,000 30-day fair value signals potential for further downside amid Fed uncertainties.
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) has been a beacon for bulls, but recent on-chain and macro indicators suggest the party might be winding down.
As of October 21, 2025, BTC is hovering between $108,000 and $111,000, a far cry from its all-time highs earlier this year. Renowned analyst Axel Adler Jr., a verified author at CryptoQuant, has raised red flags in a recent X post, highlighting failed attempts by bulls to reclaim momentum.
Adler’s analysis points to two key bullish rallies that fizzled out: one on October 13 and another on October 20. The first showed promise but quickly lost steam, while the second lacked the sustained impulse needed to drive prices higher. Accompanying his post is a detailed chart of the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index, which overlays BTC’s price in USD (black line) against the Price Index (blue), Integrated Market Index (cyan), and 30-day Fair Value (orange horizontal line around $114,000). Bull regime segments are marked in green, bear segments in red, clearly showing a transition to bearish territory since late September.
The Integrated Market Index remains stuck below 45—a threshold Adler describes as firmly bearish—indicating weak futures flows and a loss of buyer initiative. BTC’s price dipping below the 30-day fair value underscores this exhaustion, with the chart’s x-axis spanning from September 22 to October 20, revealing a downward trajectory in engagement and momentum.
This bearish outlook comes at a precarious time, with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions and inflation reports looming. Macro factors, including potential interest rate adjustments, could exacerbate the pressure on BTC. On-chain data from CryptoQuant supports this, showing reduced inflows to futures markets and waning retail interest. For Web3 enthusiasts and traders, this signals a potential correction phase, where holding strategies might give way to hedging or short positions.
While Bitcoin has defied bears before, Adler’s data-driven insights remind us that markets don’t rise forever. Investors should monitor key support levels around $105,000, as a break could accelerate downside. In the broader crypto ecosystem, altcoins tied to BTC’s performance—such as Ethereum and Solana—may face correlated dips. As always, DYOR (do your own research) and consider diversified portfolios in these uncertain times.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
