- Arthur Hayes declares Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle dead, driven by Fed’s RMP as unlimited QE fueling asset inflation.
- Cathie Wood highlights declining BTC volatility and institutional adoption, suggesting recent dips as potential cycle lows.
- Global liquidity from US, China, and other central banks set to propel Bitcoin to $200,000 in 2026, per Hayes.
The ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, one of the most enduring narratives has been Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, driven by halvings that historically sparked massive bull runs and subsequent corrections. But as we approach the end of 2025, prominent voices like Arthur Hayes and Cathie Wood are challenging this model, suggesting that global monetary policies and institutional adoption are now the dominant forces shaping BTC’s trajectory.
Arthur Hayes: RMP as Cycle Killer
Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, declared in his latest essay “Love Language” that the traditional cycle is “dead.” He points to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Reverse Mortgage Program (RMP) as a game-changer—a stealth form of quantitative easing (QE) that enables unlimited money printing to fund soaring deficits without formal oversight.
Hayes argues that RMP, by purchasing Treasury bills and injecting liquidity into the system, creates inflationary pressures on financial assets. This isn’t just U.S.-centric; he predicts coordinated expansions from central banks like China’s PBOC, the ECB, and BOJ will accelerate fiat devaluation in 2026, propelling Bitcoin higher.
Macro Liquidity Takes the Wheel
“With their powers combined, in 2026 the Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ will accelerate the destruction of fiat money,” Hayes writes, forecasting Bitcoin to consolidate between $80,000 and $100,000 before surging toward $200,000. He debunks critics who claim RMP lacks the impact of traditional QE, using transaction flow charts to show how it stimulates spending and asset inflation, much like post-2008 policies that boosted stocks, gold, and crypto.
Echoing this shift, ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood recently noted that Bitcoin is behaving more like a mature risk-on asset, with declining volatility—down from 75-90% drops in early cycles. She attributes this to institutional inflows, suggesting the recent dip may mark a cycle low, as big players like pension funds and corporations pile in, capping downside risks.
Trading the New Bitcoin Paradigm
This narrative flip has profound implications for traders. No longer tethered to halving timelines, Bitcoin’s price action may increasingly mirror global liquidity trends, such as U.S. Treasury issuance (now at $500 billion weekly) and China’s stimulus measures. While skeptics on platforms like X argue we’ve heard “cycle is dead” claims before, the consensus among top analysts is growing.
Bitcoin hovers around $90,000 amid choppy markets, investors must adapt: focus on macro indicators over historical patterns. If Hayes and Wood are right, we’re entering an era of perpetual asset inflation, where Bitcoin’s role as digital gold solidifies. The end of the four-year cycle isn’t a death knell—it’s an evolution toward mainstream dominance.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
