- Bitcoin’s worst October since 2018 (-3.69%); November historically averages 42.5% gains—targeting $160K.
- Sentiment at rock bottom: Fear & Greed at 28, exchange balances at 2018 lows, $18B ETF inflows YTD.
- Technicals align: Bullish RSI divergence, 200-week MA intact—$112K breakout unlocks $138K–$160K.
October just delivered Bitcoin its ugliest month in seven years—down 3.69%, the worst since 2018’s crypto winter bleed. But as the calendar flips, crypto’s favorite macro influencer Lark Davis is pounding the table: November is here, and history screams green. His latest X post? A stat-packed battle cry: Bitcoin has averaged 42.5% gains in November—a move that, from today’s $108,200, catapults BTC to $160,000.The data doesn’t lie. Since 2013, November has been Bitcoin’s undisputed alpha month: 9 out of 12 green, with monster runs like 2013’s 483% and 2020’s 43%. Even 2022’s post-FTX carnage saw a 6% bounce. Fast-forward to 2025: After October’s macro pummeling—U.S. election FUD, $2.1B ETF outflows in a week, and Mt. Gox repayments—sentiment is ice-cold. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 28 (Extreme Fear), retail Google searches for “Bitcoin” are at 2023 lows, and funding rates are negative across perp markets. Translation: Capacitors charged for a short squeeze.
On-chain fuel? Exchange balances at 2018 levels—2.3M BTC, down 12% YTD as HODLers move to cold storage. MicroStrategy just scooped another 15,350 BTC in October, pushing its war chest past 250,000. Institutional inflows via BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC? $18B YTD, with November historically seeing 35% of annual ETF volume. Trump’s pro-crypto pivot and a potential Fed pause in December? Macro tailwinds aligning.
Technicals flash bullish divergence: Weekly RSI bounced from 38, MACD curling up, and the 200-week MA at $62K remains unchallenged. A close above $112K flips the yearly pivot—unlocking Davis’s $160K trajectory. Analysts at Standard Chartered echo: $200K by Q2 2026 if November sparks the cycle’s final leg. Coinpedia’s November forecast? $115K–$138K, with a 42% surge landing smack in the middle.
Risks? A hard $103K breakdown eyes $92K—but with 1.2M BTC in profit-taking zones above $120K, upward pressure dominates. Lark’s closer: “With sentiment so low, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a green November.”For traders: Scale in below $108K, stops under $103K. HODLers, this is your cycle-defining entry. History’s calling—will Bitcoin answer with a 42% roar?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
