- Altcoins like $INJ, $TIA, and $SEI struggle outside risk-on phases, while BTC remains central to market trends.
- Viktor’s new strategy advises long BTC before risk-on phases and shorting weak altcoins during risk-off periods.
According to analyst Viktor, the cryptocurrency market is moving beyond the traditional four-year cycle. His latest research suggests that altcoins, which once surged alongside Bitcoin (BTC), are constantly declining except during brief “risk-on” phases.
Coins like Injective (INJ), TIA, and SEI, which were strong in previous cycles, have struggled in late 2024, further supporting this shift.
Risk-On and Risk-Off Phases Define New Market Trends
Viktor explained that altcoins no longer follow predictable cycles but fluctuate based on market conditions. During risk-on phases, BTC rallies and select altcoins temporarily outperform. However, outside these windows, altcoins tend to underperform or lose value steadily.
He pointed to past events like ETF approvals and political shifts as significant catalysts for BTC, noting that altcoin gains have become more selective.
He highlighted that in 2021, altcoins surged for months, but the OTHERS/BTC index has shown consistent underperformance since then. Even in brief risk-on moments, altcoin rallies lack the previous strength. This suggests that holding altcoins too long and expecting them to follow BTC gains is risky.
Adapting to the New Crypto Market Framework
Viktor advised traders to focus on BTC and approach altcoins strategically. He noted that altcoins usually suffer the most once BTC completes a strong rally. He also warned against assuming past winners will thrive again, pointing out that former high performers like AI tokens (RENDER, FET, AR) and meme coins have struggled.
Instead, he recommended a dynamic approach, going long on BTC before risk-on phases and shorting weaker altcoins during risk-off periods. This, he argued, is a more effective way to navigate the market than relying on outdated cycle theories.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market remains under pressure as Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to stabilize. BTC is eyeing a potential recovery after slipping below $82K on March 14, with analysts speculating a move toward the $100K mark. However, recent market corrections have been slow and exhausting, leaving investors uncertain about the next significant price movement.
Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have also traded in the red, contributing to the global crypto market cap dropping by 1.3% to $2.68 trillion. Despite cooling inflation in the U.S., investor sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
However, XRP has defied the broader downtrend, gaining momentum following Ripple’s latest developments in Dubai. Additionally, TRUMP has emerged as the top market gainer, attracting attention amid shifting trends.
The market is bracing for potential turbulence as $3.29 billion worth of BTC and ETH options contracts expire today. Historically, such expirations have triggered increased volatility, with traders and market makers adjusting positions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
