- BTC’s RSI rebounds from oversold levels while spot CVD flips positive, signaling early stabilization.
- ETFs register $159.8M inflows, but low volumes and derisking futures point to lingering caution.
- On-chain activity weakens as fees, active addresses, and Realized Cap Change decline toward cycle lows.
As Bitcoin navigates the choppy waters of late 2025, Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse for Week 49 paints a picture of tentative stabilization amid lingering vulnerabilities. After a sharp oversold plunge, BTC’s price has clawed back above recent lows, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from extreme territory—signaling exhaustion in the selling pressure. Yet, beneath this surface calm, the market’s pulse reveals a delicate balance: renewed spot buy-side aggression clashes with subdued on-chain activity and thinning liquidity, raising questions about the sustainability of this nascent recovery.Off-chain metrics offer glimmers of optimism.
Spot Markets Show Selective Strength
Spot markets show a pivotal shift, with Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) flipping positive for the first time in weeks, indicating aggressive accumulation despite spot volumes compressing to near-historic lows—a sign of cautious, selective participation rather than broad enthusiasm. insights.glassnode.com Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) echoed this positivity, recording net inflows of $159.8 million after prior outflows, hinting at rekindled institutional appetite. However, volumes remain below the lower Bollinger Band, underscoring limited conviction.
ETFs Revive—But With Cautious Inflows
In derivatives, futures markets are de-risking aggressively: Open Interest has dipped below the lower band, funding rates hit cycle lows, and leverage is unwinding, aligning with a broader deleveraging narrative. Options activity softened too, with modest Open Interest growth and volatility pricing shifting to a discount—underpricing forward risks while skew eases, dialing back bearish hedging.On-chain fundamentals, meanwhile, lag behind. Network activity cooled, with active addresses and transfer volumes easing, and fee revenue plummeting below the lower band, reflecting lighter usage in a post-halving environment still grappling with miner economics.
Derivatives De-Risk as Leverage Flushes Out
Capital flows present a mixed bag: while off-chain spot CVD brightens, the Realized Cap Change indicator—tracking the aggregate cost basis of all coins—fades toward zero, suggesting muted fresh inflows and a reliance on existing supply churn. insights.glassnode.com Profitability metrics remain firmly in loss-dominant territory, with short-term holders (STHs) to long-term holders (LTHs) ratios and Hot Capital Share elevated above upper bands, pointing to speculative, reactive behavior over diamond-handed conviction. MVRV ratios hold stable in profit zones, curbing immediate distribution risks but failing to ignite bullish momentum.This fragile equilibrium positions Bitcoin at a crossroads for December 2025. Oversold conditions are easing, ETF inflows could catalyze further upside, and de-risked derivatives may provide a cleaner launchpad for recovery. But with liquidity thin, on-chain torpor persisting, and short-term capital dominating, any sustained rally demands amplified spot demand and broader participation. As Glassnode notes, conviction remains unproven—investors should monitor volume resurgence and ETF momentum closely, lest this prove a mere dead cat bounce in a macro landscape shadowed by regulatory whispers and global rate jitters.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
