Prediction markets reached a new monthly high in July as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US generated $50.59 billion in combined trading volume. The figure marked a 7.8% increase from June’s revised $46.95 billion total. World Cup activity drove much of the turnover, although open interest weakened after the tournament ended.
- Prediction markets reached $50.59 billion in July volume.
- Kalshi led with $37.7 billion and 14% monthly growth.
- Polymarket US volume rose 54% as offshore activity declined.
Prediction Markets Volume Climbs as Kalshi Dominates July
Prediction markets gained fresh momentum in July, with Kalshi keeping a clear lead. The platform recorded $37.7 billion in monthly volume, representing a 14% increase from June.
That total gave Kalshi roughly three-quarters of the combined activity across the three venues. Its strongest boost came from sports contracts tied to the FIFA World Cup. The final match between Spain and Argentina drew approximately $1.9 billion in bets alone.
Polymarket’s two platforms moved in opposite directions. The offshore platform fell 26% to $7.9 billion. Meanwhile, Polymarket US jumped 54% to $5 billion after opening more widely to eligible U.S. users.
Even so, the two Polymarket platforms slipped in combined terms. Their total volume fell from about $14 billion in June to $12.9 billion in July. That shift suggests U.S. demand grew, though it did not fully replace offshore activity.
World Cup Boost Fades as Prediction Markets Face Scrutiny
According to initial data reported by The Block, prediction markets saw a major boost from the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19. Sports contracts created fast-moving markets with clear settlement dates. That helped traders rotate through positions more often.
However, volume does not equal platform revenue or customer deposits. The $50.59 billion figure measures notional trading activity. A single contract can change hands many times before settlement.
Open interest showed a different trend after the World Cup ended. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US, open interest dropped from around $2 billion to $1.2 billion in July.
Legal scrutiny remains active. Rutgers statistician Harry Crane previously estimated that U.S. traders may have shaped offshore Polymarket volume. Meanwhile, state regulators have challenged sports event contracts, while Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC argue federal oversight should apply.
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