- Long-term holders sell approximately 104,000 BTC monthly, highest since July 2025.
- BTC price hovers below $113K with short-term holders at average losses around $113K cost basis.
- Market outlook hinges on Fed decisions and short-term holder capitulation for recovery.
Bitcoin’s market structure is under scrutiny following persistent selling by long-term holders, according to data shared by Michael Nadeau on X. The latest charts from Glassnode reveal a significant transfer volume from long-term holders to exchanges, highlighted by a sharp spike in the 30-day moving average, reaching levels last seen in mid-2024.
This selling pressure coincides with Bitcoin’s price hovering around $100,000, where short-term holders are now sitting on average losses, with a cost basis of $113,000. Historically, market expansions have only begun after long-term holders shift from distribution to sustained accumulation, a transition Nadeau suggests may hinge on short-term holder capitulation.
Short-Term Holder Losses Could Trigger Market Capitulation
The provided chart illustrates this trend vividly, showing a red box marking the recent surge in transfer volume alongside a fluctuating BTC price. This pattern suggests that long-term holders, who typically act as market stabilizers, are cashing out, potentially signaling a distribution phase.
Nadeau predicts a possible drop to $60,000, though the timing remains uncertain. This aligns with past cycles where bearish momentum followed heavy long-term holder selling, often leading to a markdown phase before accumulation resumes.
Importance of Monitoring On-Chain Metrics and Macro Drivers
For investors, this data underscores the importance of monitoring on-chain metrics. The current dynamics indicate a critical juncture—short-term holder losses could trigger panic selling, paving the way for a market bottom. Once capitulation occurs, long-term holders may return to accumulation, setting the stage for the next bull run. As Bitcoin’s volatility continues, staying informed with tools like Glassnode will be key to navigating these shifts.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
