- Bitcoin’s price falls below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $111,937, signaling selling pressure.
- Potential downside targets include the Realized Price at $56,145 and Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost basis at $37,815.
- On-chain metrics remain key to tracking investor sentiment and predicting market shifts.
The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with speculation about Bitcoin’s (BTC) next move, fueled by an insightful chart from analyst Ali (@ali_charts). The “Long/Short-Term On-chain Cost Basis” graph, sourced from Glassnode, highlights critical price levels that could dictate BTC’s trajectory.
Currently, Bitcoin’s spot price hovers around $37,915.03, dipping below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price of $111,937.29. This breach has sparked debate among investors, with Ali suggesting a potential drop toward the Realized Price ($56,145.28) or even the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price ($37,815.03) if the trend persists.
Significance of STH and LTH Realized Prices
The chart tracks BTC’s price against key on-chain metrics, including the STH and LTH Realized Prices, which represent the average cost basis for short-term and long-term holders, respectively. Historically, when BTC falls below the STH Realized Price, it signals short-term holders are underwater, often leading to increased selling pressure.
However, the LTH Realized Price acts as a psychological support level, where long-term investors tend to hold firm. The recent dip below all realized price models, as indicated by the shaded area, suggests a bearish sentiment—though past cycles show such conditions can precede sharp recoveries.
Market Sentiment and Upcoming Price Scenarios
Market reactions on X range from cautious optimism to skepticism. Some argue liquidity and ETF flows could invalidate this “mean reversion” model, while others emphasize monitoring UTXO age and LTH distribution for clearer signals.
Despite the bearish outlook, the chart’s data underscores the importance of on-chain analytics in predicting Bitcoin’s price action. As the market watches closely, the next few weeks will reveal whether BTC rebounds or tests these lower support levels.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
