- Bitcoin is currently locked in a $64K–$68K range, showing slight momentum gains but lacking the institutional volume necessary for a “risk-on” breakout.
- While US ETF outflows remain negative, the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is improving, suggesting that aggressive sell-side pressure is finally beginning to wane.
- The NUPL indicator at -32.71 reveals deep unrealized losses, a signal that the market is in a defensive “wait-and-see” mode while waiting for fresh capital inflows.
The latest Bitcoin Market Pulse report from Glassnode for Week 09-2026, the cryptocurrency continues to exhibit reactive price action within a narrow band. After pulling back to around $65K, BTC briefly bounced to $68K before sliding to $64K, reflecting a lack of decisive momentum. This range-bound behavior underscores a market still grappling with defensive positioning across multiple fronts, despite some early signs of stabilization.
Momentum vs. Participation: Why Cooling Spot Volumes Stifle Growth
Market momentum has seen modest gains, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lifting from recent lows. However, this improvement falls short of signaling a full risk-on environment. Investor participation remains notably thin, with spot trading volumes cooling significantly. This leaves price movements less supported and more susceptible to choppy consolidation. In the US spot ETF space, outflows have moderated but persist in negative territory, while trading volumes have dipped toward the lower end of their historical range, indicating ongoing caution among investors.
Sell-side pressure, a key driver of recent declines, is easing at the margins. Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows improvement, and perpetual futures flows, though still net negative, are trending better. This suggests that aggressive selling is waning, but the market hasn’t yet shifted toward accumulation. In derivatives, positioning is mixed yet broadly defensive: futures open interest has drifted lower, hinting at mild deleveraging, while funding rates for long positions have jumped, pointing to increased demand for leveraged exposure.
Deep Unrealized Losses: Decoding the -32.71 NUPL Signal
On-chain metrics paint a similarly subdued picture. Active addresses and fee volumes sit below their low bands, transfer volumes are improving but constrained, and capital inflows remain negative as the realized capitalization contracts. Profitability metrics are stable, but unrealized losses continue to dominate, reinforcing a cautious backdrop.
A striking visual from the report is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart, which tracks Bitcoin’s price (gray line) against the NUPL indicator (blue line) and high/low bands (green/red). Spanning from April 2024 to January 2026, it shows the indicator plunging to -32.71, signaling deep unrealized losses and potential capitulation zones. The price line fluctuates wildly, peaking near $120K before trending downward, while the green band hovers above and the red below, highlighting deviation from norms.
Overall, Glassnode’s analysis points to a market in wait-and-see mode, vulnerable to reactive swings without renewed spot demand and stronger on-chain engagement. For a sustainable recovery, clearer signs of capital inflow and volume pickup will be crucial. As Bitcoin navigates this defensive phase, traders should monitor ETF flows and on-chain activity for breakout signals.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
