Bitcoin Retests Resistance That Triggered 2020 Selloff: What’s Next?

• Bitcoin holds ascending trendline support near $102K, indicating bullish pressure.
• Resistance at $104K repeatedly rejects price, signaling a critical breakout point.

Bitcoin is approaching a critical resistance zone that has historically triggered significant price reactions. Key on-chain and technical indicators show mixed signals, pointing to bullish momentum and potential risk. 

According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is retesting a crucial resistance level tracked by the Long-Term Realized Cap Impulse metric. This zone previously acted as a ceiling in late 2019 and again in 2021. 

A similar retest occurred in early 2020, just before the COVID-driven market crash. The Realized Cap Impulse shows Bitcoin trading below previous peak momentum levels.

The indicator reflects market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking complete control. While historical patterns suggest the potential for sharp moves in either direction, a confirmed breakout is yet to materialize. 

Support remains steady at lower impulse levels noted in 2022 and mid-2023. Analysts note that without a clear break, traders remain cautious due to the volatility seen in similar past scenarios.

CVDD Model and “Accessing Tops” Point to Overheated Zone

On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant as of May 16, 2025, show Bitcoin nearing the top boundary of the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model. The CVDD is $34,154, a historically significant long-term floor based on holding behavior. Bitcoin is trading just below the Max BTC line, which has previously signaled overheated market conditions.

The “Accessing Tops” indicator registers 124.088K, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin nearing a market top. However, the HOT (Highly Overheated Territory) metric remains at $0, indicating BTC has not fully entered overbought extremes. 

Accumulation metrics show continued support, with Phase 1 at 55.261K and Phase 2 at 89.415 K. This suggests participation across investor segments, though caution is rising as Bitcoin tracks historical cyclical highs.

Price Action Reveals Resistance at Key $104,000 Zone

Bitcoin is consolidating just below a key resistance zone around $104,000. This area has acted as a strong rejection point, with multiple price attempts failing to break decisively above it, resulting in several wicks near the resistance.

An ascending trendline, closely aligned with the 200-period moving average, supports Bitcoin’s price near $102,000. This trendline indicates underlying bullish pressure, preventing a deeper drop.

The current price pattern shows a tightening range, with sellers defending the $104,000 level while buyers step in around the ascending support.

This setup suggests a breakout is possible if Bitcoin closes firmly above $104,000. Conversely, if the price breaks below the ascending trendline, it could trigger a pullback toward lower support levels.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $102,983.49, down 1.17% over the past 24 hours.