- Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the 1-month cohort cost basis, mirroring the “weak hand” flush-outs seen during the market bottoms of 2018 and 2022.
- The 1-month realized price is trending toward a crossover with the 6-month level; historically, this confirms a shift into a deep bear regime or a final re-accumulation phase.On-chain data identifies $70,000 as the critical overhead resistance; reclaiming this 6-month cost basis is required to signal a return to bullish momentum.
The crypto analytics firm Glassnode shed light on Bitcoin’s current market dynamics through their Risk Indicator: Realized Price by Short-Term Age Cohorts. This metric breaks down the average acquisition costs of BTC held by investors in specific short-term age bands, offering a nuanced view of market momentum and investor behavior.
The chart illustrates Bitcoin’s price trajectory (in black) alongside realized prices for cohorts under 1 month (red) and between 1-6 months (blue), with additional shading for sub-1-month holdings. Spanning from 2018 to late 2025, it captures multiple market cycles, including bull runs peaking near $200K and subsequent corrections. Notably, the recent shaded area shows a sharp decline in BTC price, dipping below key realized price levels, echoing patterns seen in past capitulations.
The VWAP of Blockchains: Leveraging Realized Price for Accuracy
Glassnode emphasizes that technical analysis often uses tools like Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for momentum gauging, but on-chain data provides superior insights by leveraging actual transaction volumes tied to investor cohorts. A critical signal is the crossover between the 1-month and 6-month cohort cost bases. Historically, when the 1-month realized price falls below the 6-month level, it signals a shift into deep bear regimes, where “weak hands” (recent buyers facing losses) sell off to “stronger hands” (longer-term holders).
This aligns with a quoted post from Bitcoin Vector, noting a return to capitulation levels on the Risk Index. As of early February 2026, with BTC trading in a volatile range following a post-halving surge and macroeconomic pressures, this indicator suggests we may be at a bottoming-out phase similar to previous extremes in 2018-2019 or 2022. However, it could also prelude deeper declines if selling pressure persists.
Navigating the Bottom: Potential Recovery Scenarios for 2026
For investors, this underscores the value of on-chain metrics over pure price action. While short-term holders realize losses, long-term accumulation could build support floors. Glassnode’s analysis implies that reclaiming above the 6-month cohort realized price (around $70K based on recent data) might signal a regime change toward bullish momentum.
External factors like regulatory shifts, institutional inflows via ETFs, and global economic uncertainty could influence outcomes. As ownership transitions, savvy traders might view this as an opportunity for strategic entries, betting on historical precedents where such crossovers preceded recoveries. Glassnode’s tool highlights Bitcoin’s resilience through data-driven lenses, reminding us that true market turns often emerge from cohort behaviors rather than hype. Monitoring these indicators could be key to navigating the next phase.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
