- Glassnode’s URPD metric identifies $1.42, $1.27, and $1.06 as high-volume zones where over 500 million XRP were transacted, serving as potential “buy walls.”
- Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP ($1.63B) on February 2, but immediately re-escrowed 700 million tokens to mitigate long-term inflationary pressure.
- While AI models predict consolidation near $1.45, institutional forecasts from Standard Chartered maintain a long-term $8 target based on ETF inflows.
The ever-volatile crypto landscape, XRP has been navigating choppy waters, with its price stabilizing around $1.61 as of early February 2026. This comes after a turbulent period marked by a over 40% drop over the past year, influenced by broader market sentiments and geopolitical tensions. A recent analysis shared by crypto chart expert Ali Charts on X brings fresh perspective through the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric from Glassnode, spotlighting potential support zones that could dictate XRP’s near-term trajectory.
The February Supply Surge: Ripple’s 1 Billion XRP Unlock
URPD, originally designed for UTXO-based chains but adapted for assets like XRP, maps out the prices at which the current supply was last moved. It reveals clusters of unrealized profits or losses, indicating where holders might defend or capitulate. The chart identifies three key support levels: $1.42, $1.27, and $1.06. These represent substantial volumes—up to 500 million XRP equivalents—where tokens were previously transacted, suggesting strong buying interest could emerge if prices retreat to these points. For instance, the $1.06 level shows the densest accumulation, potentially serving as a robust floor during deeper corrections.
This insight arrives amid Ripple’s scheduled token unlock on February 2, releasing 1 billion XRP valued at approximately $1.63 billion. While 300 million XRP remains in treasury for operational use, the bulk—700 million—was re-locked into escrows maturing later in 2026. Such unlocks historically introduce supply pressure, contributing to XRP’s recent slide from highs above $2. Analysts note this could test the URPD supports, especially if selling intensifies due to external factors like Iran-related geopolitical risks or ETF outflows impacting sentiment.
Institutional Conviction: The Path to $8 vs. Macro Reality
Looking ahead, price predictions vary widely. Optimistic forecasts from institutions like Standard Chartered eye $8 by year-end, driven by potential ETF approvals and regulatory clarity. However, AI models like ChatGPT and Grok suggest consolidation around $1.25-$1.45 if supports break, with sub-$1 risks in prolonged bearishness. XRP’s market cap stands at $98 billion, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $4.67 billion, underscoring sustained interest despite headwinds.
For traders, monitoring these URPD levels is crucial. A bounce from $1.42 could signal recovery toward $2, while a breach of $1.06 might invite further downside. As Ripple continues to expand its cross-border payment ecosystem, these on-chain metrics provide a data-driven lens for navigating uncertainty in 2026. Investors should watch for macroeconomic shifts and regulatory updates to gauge XRP’s resilience.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
