- Altcoins ex-Top 10 have based at multi-year lows, but the trend only flips if the monthly ratio closes above the nearby resistance band.
- A sustained move in ETH/BTC through 0.040–0.045 toward 0.05, alongside falling BTC dominance, is the cleanest confirmation that rotation is real.
- Rising spot volumes and improving mid-cap breadth validate the shift; yet BTC impulse moves, macro risk-off, or large unlocks can stall the turn.
Altcoins outside the top ten are showing the first signs of relative strength against Bitcoin. The monthly ratio has based near multi-year lows and is turning higher. However, confirmation still hinges on a clean break above nearby resistance.
Altcoin Ratio Bases and Tests Resistance
The ratio spent years printing lower highs and lower lows before entering a marked retracement zone. It bounced from that area and now presses a resistance band that capped every rebound. A monthly close above this band would deliver the first trend reversal signal.
Momentum supports the basing case, as the MACD histogram rises from deeply negative territory. A flip to positive often precedes multi-month mean-reversion moves in relative charts. Volume expansion and improving breadth would further validate the turn.
Until triggers land, the setup remains unconfirmed. Key checkpoints include a higher high on the ratio and BTC dominance rolling over. A failure beneath recent higher lows would defer the rotation view.
ETH/BTC Leads the Breadth Signal
ETH/BTC has traded within a broad range since 2021 between roughly 0.025 and 0.085. After bottoming near 0.025 this summer, the pair rebounded toward 0.038. It remains below the 0.040–0.045 resistance band and the 0.05 mid-range.
Source: CoinMarketcap
A weekly close above 0.040–0.045 would strengthen the leadership case for ETH. Support rests around 0.032–0.030, while a loss invites a retest of 0.025. Maintaining higher lows while reclaiming 0.05 would shift the medium-term balance.
Fundamental drivers include L2 activity, staking participation, and fee burn cadence. BTC-specific catalysts, such as ETF flows, can cap the ratio temporarily. Technically, a rising RSI and a MACD cross would add conviction.
Checklist and Outlook
Market confirmation requires a monthly reclaim and sustained hold above the resistance band on the ratio. Concurrent signals include ETH/BTC trending up and BTC dominance easing lower. Rising spot volumes and broader mid-cap participation would complete the picture.
Historically, alt outperformance windows follow long compression and can persist until BTC volatility resurges. In those phases, token utility and clear economics attract incremental flows. Therefore, high-beta projects with defined roadmaps typically benefit earliest.
Risks remain visible despite improving momentum. A sharp BTC impulse move can drain liquidity from smaller names and hit relative performance. Macro risk-off or large token unlocks would also delay the rotation.
