- Short-term holder SOPR falls below 1, marking widespread capitulation and signaling a potential price bottom.
- BTC poised for short-term rebound toward $100K if the crucial $80K support holds.
- Long-term holders continue accumulating, reinforcing bullish momentum despite short-term panic.
In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price swings continue to test investor resolve. As BTC hovers around the $86,000 mark amid broader market jitters, fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant paints a picture of desperation among short-term holders. Their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)—a key metric tracking whether recently acquired coins are sold at a profit or loss—has dipped below 1.0 for the first time in months, signaling widespread capitulation.
Echoes of Past Bottoms: History Says “Rebound”
This isn’t just noise; it’s a classic harbinger of potential reversal, echoing patterns from Bitcoin’s turbulent history.For the uninitiated, SOPR for short-term holders (those holding BTC for less than 155 days) acts as a sentiment thermometer. When it exceeds 1, traders are cashing in gains, often fueling rallies. A plunge below 1 means sellers are eating losses, shaking out weak hands and potentially clearing the deck for stronger bulls. The accompanying CryptoQuant chart, spanning from early 2023 to September 2025, starkly illustrates this.
$80K Support: The Make-or-Break Zone
The blue line representing STH SOPR snakes alongside BTC’s price (in orange), with red circles highlighting prior capitulation zones: the brutal 2022 bear market bottom, a mid-2024 correction, and now this fresh dip in late 2025.Historically, these red-flagged moments have been buy signals. Post-2022, Bitcoin rocketed from sub-$20,000 to over $70,000 within a year. The 2024 instance preceded a swift 30% pump. Today’s scenario mirrors that playbook—short-term speculators, lured by the post-halving hype, are now folding under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds like persistent inflation and regulatory whispers. On-chain flows show increased transfers to exchanges, amplifying the sell-off vibe. Yet, as CryptoQuant analyst @DanCoinInvestor notes, “Short-term holders have surrendered, but… In the short term, a rebound is highly likely.”This optimism isn’t blind. The metric’s trough suggests exhaustion selling, often the prelude to relief rallies.
Long-Term Holders vs Short-Term Panic
Long-term holders, meanwhile, remain unfazed, with their SOPR steady above 1 and accumulation metrics showing net inflows. If BTC holds above $80,000—the psychological and technical support level—expect a push toward $100,000 by year-end, buoyed by institutional inflows via ETFs and seasonal tailwinds.But caution flags wave. A decisive break below $80K could unleash cascading liquidations, dragging BTC into a “much tougher period” as warned by the analyst. This might test $70,000, reigniting fears of a prolonged correction in a maturing yet fragile market. Traders, watch volume and funding rates closely; a spike in bullish derivatives could confirm the rebound thesis.For Bitcoin maximalists and DeFi dabblers alike, this capitulation is a reminder: volatility forges value. As short-term pain eases, the path to new highs may clear—but only if key supports endure. In crypto’s grand theater, today’s sellers could be tomorrow’s sidelined spectators.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
