Bitcoin has endured a volatile and bearish week, with extreme price swings keeping traders on edge. Last Monday, the cryptocurrency plunged over 9% in less than 24 hours, only to rebound 11% shortly after, highlighting the market’s unpredictability. Despite this recovery, Bitcoin remains under pressure, with bulls struggling to reclaim the $100K mark. Over the past few days, BTC has hovered around $96,500, reflecting indecision and the absence of a clear trend.
For years, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle — largely driven by halving events—was the foundation of crypto market predictions. Investors relied on historical supply cuts to anticipate bull and bear phases, believing the cycle dictated Bitcoin’s long-term price movements. However, according to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, this model no longer applies. He argues that the market has fundamentally changed, requiring investors to adapt or risk falling behind.
The Declining Impact of Bitcoin Halvings
Deutscher’s first argument centers on Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce mining rewards roughly every four years. In early cycles, these halvings slashed new BTC issuance by 50% (2012) and 25% (2016), causing supply shocks that triggered major bull runs. However, the 2024 halving only cut issuance by 6.25%, a fraction of the previous reductions. As a result, the direct price impact of halvings has weakened over time, making them less of a dominant market driver.
From 2009 to 2012, 10.5 million BTC were mined. That number halved to 5.25M (2012-2016), then dropped to 2.625M (2016-2020), and now just 1.312M BTC will be mined by 2024. With Bitcoin’s supply inflation shrinking, the once-powerful halving effect has significantly diminished.
Read Also: The Future of Cryptocurrency: Key Trends Shaping 2025
Bitcoin ETFs: A Game-Changing Demand Shift
While the supply side weakens, Deutscher highlights a historic demand-side shift—the rise of Bitcoin ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen record-breaking inflows, exceeding expectations from analysts and institutions alike. A chart tracking ETF cumulative flows shows a parabolic rise throughout 2024, surpassing $40 billion by early 2025.
These ETFs have fundamentally altered market dynamics, providing a steady, institutional-driven demand for Bitcoin. Unlike previous cycles, where speculative retail traders dominated, ETFs create continuous Bitcoin accumulation, reducing market volatility and reshaping price action.
How This Affects Altcoins
The biggest impact, Deutscher argues, is on the altcoin market. Traditionally, capital rotated from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then into large-cap altcoins, and finally into speculative low-cap assets—a process known as “altseason.” A chart titled “Path to Altseason” outlines this cycle, where Bitcoin surges first, followed by Ethereum’s outperformance, then large caps rally, and finally, a peak altseason where even low-cap tokens explode in value.
However, with ETFs driving sustained Bitcoin accumulation, Deutscher suggests this rotation may no longer follow the same pattern. If Bitcoin dominance remains strong, liquidity may not flow into altcoins as before, reshaping market dynamics.
With Bitcoin supply shocks weakening and institutional demand surging, the market is entering uncharted territory. The 4-year cycle, once a reliable framework for crypto investing, is losing relevance. Instead, investors must navigate a new paradigm, where ETF-driven demand, liquidity shifts, and market structure evolution dictate future price movements.
For Deutscher, adaptation is key in 2025. Crypto’s landscape is changing rapidly, and those who cling to outdated cycle models risk being left behind in this new era.
