- BTC pullback holds above Oct 5 low at $122,200, teasing Elliott wave iv but with wave 3 potentially incomplete per 3-wave pattern.
- Fibonacci targets $120,500 support; breach risks deeper correction, while hold eyes $135k wave 5 extension.
- On-chain strength and ETF flows signal bullish bias, contrasting macro gold outperformance.
As Bitcoin navigates the choppy waters of early October 2025, technical analysts are poring over charts for clues to the next move. A fresh update from @MoreCryptoOnline highlights a deepening pullback that’s held above Sunday’s lows, teasing the possibility of wave iv in an Elliott Wave structure—yet with a caveat: the rally’s final leg may still be unfolding as an incomplete wave 3, framed by a corrective 3-wave pattern rather than a full impulsive close.
Elliott Wave theory, a staple for crypto chartists, posits markets advance in five-wave impulses (1-2-3-4-5) followed by three-wave corrections (A-B-C). Here, BTC’s surge from September’s $95,000 trough—fueled by ETF inflows and halving afterglow—appears to have carved out waves i through iii, peaking near $126,000 last week. The subsequent dip to $122,200 on October 5 tested resolve, but today’s rebound to $123,883 keeps it 1.4% above that floor, per real-time feeds. The annotated chart underscores this: shaded zones mark the interim wave 3 extension, with the pullback labeled as a potential iv retracement—typically shallow at 38.2% Fibonacci, eyeing $120,500
Why the hesitation on calling wave 3 done? The “last move” upward lacks the five-subwave ferocity of a true impulse finale, instead tracing a sideways A-B-C grind. This aligns with broader sentiment: short-term Elliott forecasts from Elliott Wave International suggest a five-wave cycle from the September 1 low, targeting $135,000 if iv resolves bullishly without breaching the wave ii low around $118,000. On-chain metrics bolster resilience—exchange reserves at multi-year lows, with long-term holders accumulating 2.1% of supply YTD—while macro whispers of Fed pauses add tailwinds.
Bulls will cheer the hold above key EMAs (50-day at $112,400), interpreting the 3-wave wiggle as mere consolidation before wave 5 blasts to $150,000 by year-end, as some analysts project. Bears, however, flag overbought RSI divergences and Bitcoin’s lag versus gold’s 28% YTD romp, hinting at deeper iv pain if $122k cracks. With Q4 kicking off on ETF highs ($18B inflows), the setup favors upside asymmetry—unless geopolitical jitters (US debt ceiling echoes) intervene.
For now, BTC’s poise above Sunday’s low screams “not out of the woods, but far from capitulation.” Traders: Scale in on dips, but mind the waves—Elliott’s geometry rarely lies.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
