- The 120 dollar level is a major weekly support drawn from mid‑2025 lows; losing it would expose the 100 dollar area as the next high‑probability downside magnet.
- Despite price weakness, SOL leads blockchain “mindshare” and has seen over 1 billion dollars exit exchanges recently, suggesting long‑term accumulation near current levels.
- If 120 dollars holds, a falling‑wedge style rebound toward 140–150 dollars into early 2026 remains a realistic bullish scenario, especially with derivatives leverage cooling.
The volatile world of cryptocurrency, few assets capture the imagination like Solana (SOL). As 2025 draws to a close, the high-speed blockchain is grappling with a stark reality: a critical support level at $120 that could dictate its trajectory into the new year. Renowned analyst AltcoinSherpa recently sounded the alarm on X, posting a detailed TradingView chart of SOL/USDT that underscores the fragility of the current setup. “120 still support but if we lose this area its prob going to $100 or something quickly,” the post warns, accompanied by a weekly candlestick chart spanning from late 2024 into early 2026.
Price Action: From $200 Highs to a 55% Q4 Drawdown
The chart paints a picture of resilience tested by relentless pressure. SOL’s price has carved out a multi-month range, bouncing off the $120 horizontal support drawn from prior lows in mid-2025. Volume bars at the bottom reveal sporadic spikes during key rallies—peaking in Q2 2025 amid meme coin frenzies on Solana—but have since tapered, signaling waning buyer conviction.
The upper boundary near $200, tested in September, now looms as a distant memory after a 55% Q4 correction that has shaved billions from its market cap. SOL hovers around $130, a precarious perch just above the danger zone, with momentum indicators like RSI flirting with oversold territory on daily timeframes.
On-Chain Signs: Exchange Outflows and Mindshare Strength
Despite the bearish price action, Solana’s fundamentals remain a beacon of optimism. The network continues to dominate crypto mindshare, capturing 26.79% of blockchain-specific interest for the second straight year, driven by explosive on-chain activity and a thriving DeFi and NFT ecosystem.
Recent data shows $1.11 billion in SOL exiting exchanges in late 2025, forming a bullish liquidity structure around the $120 level—a classic sign of accumulation by long-term holders. Spot outflows have slowed, and leverage in derivatives is cooling, suggesting the forced selling wave may be ebbing. Yet, risks abound: a break below $120 could trigger air-pocket selling, accelerating toward $100 as stop-losses cascade.
Bullish Path: Holding $120 and Rebounding Toward $150
For traders, this is a binary moment. Holding $120 invites a falling wedge breakout toward $140-$150, potentially reigniting bullish momentum into 2026. A breach, however, amplifies capitulation fears in a broader market still reeling from macroeconomic headwinds.
Solana’s speed and low fees position it as Ethereum’s fiercest rival, but price discovery will hinge on macro cues like Federal Reserve signals and Bitcoin’s halving afterglow. Investors should DYOR and consider dollar-cost averaging if conviction in Solana’s tech stack persists. As AltcoinSherpa’s chart reminds us, crypto’s charts don’t lie—but they do demand vigilance.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
