- For the first time in nearly two years, the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has fallen below 1, signaling that veteran investors are selling BTC for less than their acquisition price.
- On February 5, 2026, the network recorded a staggering $3.2 billion in realized losses, surpassing the single-day pain felt during the height of the Terra (LUNA) collapse.
- Analysts view this “strong hand” exhaustion as a textbook late-stage bear market signal, potentially flushing out the final layer of “top buyers” before a structural recovery.
The volatile world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s recent plunge to $60,000 has sent shockwaves through the market, particularly among long-term holders (LTHs)—those steadfast investors often dubbed “diamond hands” for their resilience.
According to fresh insights from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, this downturn has triggered a rare event: the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for LTHs dipping below 1.
This metric, which measures the profit or loss realized when coins are spent, had hovered above 1 for 1-2 years prior, indicating consistent gains. Now, its decline signals that even veteran holders are selling at a loss, a psychological blow reminiscent of the infamous May 2022 LUNA crash.
Mirroring 2022: Why the LUNA Comparisons Are Surfacing Now
The LUNA debacle, where the Terra ecosystem imploded, wiping out billions and shaking investor confidence, saw similar SOPR patterns. Back then, LTHs faced unprecedented pressure, leading to widespread capitulation. Glassnode’s chart illustrates this parallel vividly: the blue line representing LTH SOPR mirrors Bitcoin’s price (in black), showing spikes during bull runs and sharp drops in bears.
From October 2020 to February 2026, the metric tracked price surges up to $140,000 before the recent reversal. This isn’t just data—it’s a window into market sentiment. When LTHs, who typically hold through cycles, start realizing losses, it suggests exhaustion among strong hands, often a precursor to market bottoms.
The Math of Pain: Decoding the $3.2 Billion Realized Loss Spike
But why now? The drop to $60K follows a euphoric 2025 bull run fueled by institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic shifts. However, rising interest rates, regulatory scrutiny, and global economic uncertainty have flipped the script.
Short-term holders (STHs) have been dumping coins en masse, but LTH involvement amplifies the severity. Historically, such SOPR breaches have preceded recoveries, as seen post-2018 and 2022 bears. Yet, this could extend the downturn if external factors like geopolitical tensions persist.
Institutional Exit? Analyzing Negative Coinbase Premiums and ETF Outflows
For investors, this is a cautionary tale: conviction isn’t unbreakable. While some see opportunity in accumulation—evidenced by replies to Glassnode’s post noting “buying the dip”—others warn of prolonged pain. Monitoring SOPR alongside metrics like realized price and MVRV ratio will be key.
Bitcoin navigates this turbulence, the question remains: Is this the capitulation needed for a rebound, or the start of a deeper correction? With on-chain data as our guide, the market’s next move could redefine the cycle.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
