Bitcoin Eyes 25% Rally as MVRV and Fed Outlook Stay Bullish

• STH MVRV suggests Bitcoin can rise 20%–25% before major selling.
• Elevated open interest shows investors remain active despite price dip.

Bitcoin is showing signs of strength despite a brief price dip and upcoming macroeconomic events. Data suggests more upside potential, with on-chain indicators not yet at sell thresholds. Meanwhile, open interest remains high, indicating continued market engagement. The Federal Reserve is also expected to hold interest rates steady, supporting a stable macro backdrop for crypto markets.

Short-Term Holder MVRV Signals Upside Potential

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) remains below key profit-taking levels. Historically, STH MVRV reaching around 1.35 has signaled market tops, often leading to investor sell-offs and subsequent corrections. At present, the indicator is still under this threshold, suggesting further room for price appreciation.

Analyst Darkfost noted that BTC could gain another 20%–25% before short-term holders are likely to realize profits. The chart data, covering 2021 to mid-2025, includes BTC’s price, STH realized price, and MVRV movements. These show that current levels do not yet reflect excessive market froth. The data points toward a continued rally phase before major resistance emerges.

BTC Price Dips Slightly but Open Interest Stays Strong

Bitcoin saw a slight pullback, trading at $118,157.21 after a $540 drop, or 0.45%, from recent highs near $120,000. Despite this minor dip, overall sentiment remains positive. Coinalyze data shows that aggregated open interest currently stands at $40.33 billion. This figure has been climbing steadily since May.

Rising open interest suggests strong investor engagement and a high level of market activity. Such conditions often indicate consolidation phases that precede larger moves. 

Fed Poised to Maintain Rates, Easing Macro Pressure

All attention is now turning to the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting set for July 19, 2025. Veteran trader Matthew Dixon forecasted a 96.9% chance that rates will remain at 4.25%–4.50%. According to Dixon, there is no probability of a rate hike and only a 3.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

Dixon added that the Fed is likely to stay in wait-and-see mode, with disinflation trends still in place. Market sentiment aligns with this outlook, implying a stable macro environment in the near term. For cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, a steady rate policy removes near-term pressure and supports bullish momentum.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.