- XLM has touched the $0.078 support level, marking a 161.8% Fibonacci extension that historically signals the end of a deep corrective 5-wave cycle.
- The CME Group’s launch of XLM futures on February 9, 2026, provides a regulated gateway for traditional finance, potentially stabilizing price action through institutional hedging.
- Despite recent bearishness, a 10% rebound to $0.16 and a 56% surge in trading volume suggest that “smart money” is accumulating ahead of the $0.183 breakout level.
The volatile world of cryptocurrencies, Stellar Lumens (XLM) has been under pressure, but recent technical indicators suggest a turning point may be near. A detailed Elliott Wave analysis shared by prominent crypto analyst More Crypto Online highlights a completed downside structure on the 4-hour chart against USD on Coinbase. The chart depicts a multi-month decline from August 2025 peaks around $0.70, unfolding in five waves labeled (1) through (5), with sub-waves A, B, C in corrections.
Institutional On-Ramp: The Impact of CME’s February 9 Futures Launch
The price action culminated in a sharp drop to approximately $0.085, aligning precisely with Fibonacci extension levels: 100% at $0.1615, 123.6% at $0.1226, 138% at $0.1036, and 161.8% at $0.0785. This “blue target zone” indicates a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. However, the analyst cautions that the structure remains fragile without confirmation. A decisive break above $0.183 would provide early evidence of a low, ideally followed by a five-wave impulsive move upward to validate a trend reversal.
Recent price data supports cautious optimism. XLM surged 10% to $0.17 amid a broader market rebound led by Bitcoin’s climb above $70,000, with trading volume spiking 56% to $426 million. By February, it closed at $0.161, reflecting ongoing consolidation. Analysts note that holding support above $0.15 is crucial to avoid further downside.
Network Fundamentals: Cross-Border Payments and Tokenized Asset Growth
Adding fuel to the fire is the upcoming launch of regulated Stellar futures by CME Group on February, 2026, alongside Cardano and Chainlink contracts. This move, offering standard and micro sizes (250,000 XLM and 12,500 XLM respectively), signals growing institutional interest in Stellar’s cross-border payment network. With Stellar’s focus on efficient, low-cost remittances and tokenized assets, this could enhance liquidity and attract traditional finance players.
Price predictions vary, but optimism prevails. Changelly forecasts a February high of $0.175, while MEXC eyes $0.25-$0.27 if resistance breaks. CoinCodex projects $0.176 by year-end. For 2026 overall, averages hover around $0.33, driven by adoption trends.
Traders should monitor volume and RSI (currently neutral at 35) for signs of strength. While risks persist in a “extreme fear” market, Stellar’s fundamentals and technical setup position it for a potential comeback. As always, conduct thorough research before investing.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
